Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
